Last updated on November 21st, 2022 at 07:21 am
Oxford mathematical model forecasts men’s FIFA World Cup route
Joshua Bull, an Oxford Mathematics researcher, developed the model, which predicts:
Wales will be eliminated in the group stages. England will be eliminated in the quarter-finals. Argentina will face Brazil in the semi-finals. Brazil will triumph over Belgium in the final.
The model ran the group stages a million times and selected the most common outcomes.
The algorithm then ran 100,000 simulations of each knockout game.
The model was developed by analysing team rating data from http://eloratings.net, with a focus on every first-team international game played since 2018.
Experiments and results are fascinating! Let’s see if they can withstand the test of time.
Some Comments
Assuming it’s as reliable as their C-19 modeling, I’m off to bet a grand on England to win it.
It appears that the country with the higher ranking wins. I’m curious why they required millions of simulations for this.
I could do the same thing in 5 minutes if I used this link:
Excellent use of scholarly resources. ‘Out of this world.’ Higher education. You can’t beat it.
This is why many Quant funds perform so poorly.
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