Last updated on November 21st, 2022 at 07:21 am
Oxford mathematical model forecasts men’s FIFA World Cup route
Joshua Bull, an Oxford Mathematics researcher, developed the model, which predicts:
Wales will be eliminated in the group stages. England will be eliminated in the quarter-finals. Argentina will face Brazil in the semi-finals. Brazil will triumph over Belgium in the final.
The model ran the group stages a million times and selected the most common outcomes.
The algorithm then ran 100,000 simulations of each knockout game.
The model was developed by analysing team rating data from http://eloratings.net, with a focus on every first-team international game played since 2018.
Experiments and results are fascinating! Let’s see if they can withstand the test of time.
It appears that the country with the higher ranking wins. I’m curious why they required millions of simulations for this.
I could do the same thing in 5 minutes if I used this link:
Excellent use of scholarly resources. ‘Out of this world.’ Higher education. You can’t beat it.
This is why many Quant funds perform so poorly.